The description of the relationship between temperature [T] and electricity consumption [EC)] is key to improving our understanding of a potential climate change amplification feedback and, thus, energy planning. We sought to characterize the relationship between the EC and daily T of different regions of Argentina and use these historical relationships to estimate expected EC under T future scenarios. We used a time series approach to model EC, removing trends and seasonality and accounting for breaks and discontinuities. EC and T data were obtained from Argentine Wholesale Market Administrator Company and global databases, respectively. We evaluate the T-EC model for the period between 1997 and 2014 and two sub-periods: 1997-2001 and 2011-2014. We use modeled temperature projections for the 2027-2044 period based on the Representative Pathway Concentration 4.5 together with our region-specific T-EC models to predict changes in EC due to T changes. The shape of the T-EC relationships is quite stable between periods and regions but varies according to the temperature gradient. We find large increases in EC in warm days (from 40 to 126 Wh/cap/°C) and a region-specific response to cold days [from flat to steep responses]. The T at which EC was at minimum varies between 14 and 20 °C and increase in time as mean daily T also increase. Estimated temperature projections translate into an average increase factor of 7.2 in EC with contrasting relative importance between regions of Argentina. Results highlight potential sensitivity of EC to T in the developing countries.
Propato, T. S.; Abelleyra, D. de; Semmartin, M. & Verón, S. R. (2021). Differential sensitivities of electricity consumption to global warming across regions of Argentina. Climatic Change,166, (1-2),18 p.
101007/s10584-021-03129-6
Propato, Tamara Sofía, Abelleyra, Diego de, Semmartin, María, Verón, Santiago Ramón. 2021. "Differential sensitivities of electricity consumption to global warming across regions of Argentina". Climatic Change 166, no.1-2:18.
Recuperado de http://ri.agro.uba.ar/greenstone3/library/collection/arti/document/2021propato